陈兰,范宣梅,熊俊麟,王欣,窦向阳

• 1:成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

冰湖溃决灾害是指冰湖坝体突然破坏引发溃决洪水或溃决泥石流的现象，对下游人类活动和自然环境造成严重影响。近年来，藏东南地区冰川快速退缩，冰湖数量和规模显著增加，冰湖溃决事件广泛发生。基于1995-2021年多时相Landsat系列遥感影像、Sentinel-2A遥感影像，结合RAMMS水文动力学模型方法，对藏东南地区多依弄巴流域内冰湖、冰川进行动态变化分析，模拟冰崩危险体触发冰湖溃决和冰湖溃决泥石流的演进过程，根据泥石流模拟中的流速和流深对冰湖溃决可能影响的区域进行危险性分区。结果表明：流域内冰川面积由1995年的14.05 km~2退缩为2021年的9.43 km~2,年均退缩率约为0.15 km~2/a。流域内共发育3处冰崩危险体，均可能触发冰湖溃决。潜在危险冰湖在全溃情况下，溃决泥石流会冲出沟口堵塞然乌湖湖口和帕隆藏布主河道，对下游居民和道路造成影响，影响范围约4.05 km~2,其中高危险性区域约2.55 km~2。危险性评价结果可为多依弄巴流域未来土地利用规划和防灾减灾提供依据，也能为藏东南地区冰湖溃决型泥石流危险评估提供参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 冰湖溃决灾害;RAMMS;危险性评价;冰崩;藏东南

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家杰出青年科学基金项目(42125702);; 四川省自然科学基金重大项目(2022NSFC003)

作者(Author): 陈兰,范宣梅,熊俊麟,王欣,窦向阳

DOI: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220235

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