张俞;殷坤龙;郭子正;梁鑫;檀梦皎;杨永刚;

• 1:中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

库水位变动和降雨是影响三峡水库库区滑坡失稳的重要因素,因此进行不同时段内的库水位变动联合降雨工况下的滑坡稳定性评价具有重要意义。以重庆市万州区麻柳林滑坡作为研究对象,首先在实际监测资料的基础上,将工程地质类比法和GeoStudio数值模拟相结合,对滑坡抗剪强度参数进行反演优化;然后基于P-Ⅲ型分布曲线对降雨重现期进行分析后共设置25种计算工况,利用GeoStudio模拟软件进行模拟计算。并选取了内摩擦角、黏聚力及降雨量3个因素进行了正交试验,采用极差分析法进行稳定性敏感分析。分析表明,麻柳林滑坡稳定性变化幅度与降雨强度呈正相关,变形量与滑坡稳定性系数呈负相关;最不利工况为低水位联合百年一遇降雨工况,此时麻柳林滑坡稳定性系数为0.960,滑坡模拟变形量达到0.394 7 m。极差分析结果表明所选取的3个影响因素的敏感性由大到小依次为:内摩擦角、黏聚力、降雨量。此次研究成果为确定库区滑坡失稳破坏工况和稳定性分析评价提供了一种可行的思路。

关键词(KeyWords)： 库水位变动;降雨作用;参数反演;滑坡稳定性;变形量;敏感性分析;正交试验

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0809400);; 国家自然科学基金项目(41772310)

作者(Author): 张俞;殷坤龙;郭子正;梁鑫;檀梦皎;杨永刚;

Email:

DOI: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2019.0623

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