东北界河河岸稳定性评价:以乌苏里江饶河段为例Stability Evaluation of Northeast China Border Riverbank:A Case Study in Raohe Area of Ussuri River
孟令辉;董玉森;陈伟涛;李显巨;孙攀;
摘要(Abstract):
近年来,东北界河乌苏里江我国一侧塌岸地质灾害频发,江岸侵蚀严重,对沿岸居民的生产生活造成严重影响。针对这一情况,利用多源、多尺度、多时相遥感数据及研究区地质图、地形图、地貌图,结合野外实地调查工作和GIS技术,提取了植被覆盖度、工程地质、地貌特征、护岸类型和剖面地质结构及研究区塌岸地质灾害数据,建立了河岸稳定性评价体系;采用似然比方法对饶河段河岸稳定性进行了定量评价,得到了河岸稳定性分区结果;并对分区结果的可靠性和精确性做了评价和验证,发现分区结果与实际情况具有较好的一致性。本研究基于多源地学数据,利用似然比开展河岸稳定性评价,对塌岸地质灾害调查、环境保护和防灾减灾具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。
关键词(KeyWords): 河岸稳定性评价;影响因子;似然比;乌苏里江绕河段
基金项目(Foundation): 中国地质调查局项目(1212011220106;12120115063201);; 国家自然科学基金项目(41001248)
作者(Author): 孟令辉;董玉森;陈伟涛;李显巨;孙攀;
Email:
DOI:
参考文献(References):
- [1]汤明高.山区河道型水库塌岸预测评价方法及防治技术研究[D].成都:成都理工大学,2007.
- [2]杨建新,杨卫峰,卢多敏.黄河三门峡库区塌岸地质灾害调查与防治研究[J].西部探矿工程,2003,15(12):154-155.
- [3]金松培,邹淑芳,孙伟.黑龙江、乌苏里江塌岸地质灾害及防治措施[J].地质与资源,2006,15(2):125-128.
- [4]王逊,陈伟涛.塌岸地质灾害遥感监测方法研究[J].安全与环境工程,2010,17(1):10-13.
- [5]David P,Thoma S C G M.Quantifying river bank erosion with scanning laser altimetry[J].International Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing,2001,34(XXXIV-3/W4):169-174.
- [6]Couper P,Maddock I.Subaerial river bank erosion processes and their interaction with other bank erosion mechanisms on the river,warwickshire,UK[J].Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,2001,26(6):631-646.
- [7]Shu A P,Li F H,Yang K.Bank-collapse disasters in the wide valley desert reach of the upper Yellow River[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2012,13:2451-2457.
- [8]Akode M,Osman C R T.Riverbank stability analysis.I:Theory[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,1988,114(2):134-150.
- [9]戴凌元,韩金超,马振海.国境界河乌苏里江国土防护工程的必要性[J].水利科技与经济,2002,8(4):237-238.
- [10]边岩柏,姜志良.黑龙江中俄界河塌岸地质灾害分析及防治对策[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,16(4):145-148.
- [11]张建民,卢建旗.饶河县乌苏里江段国土流失原因及防治措施[J].黑龙江水利科技,2010,38(4):219.
- [12]王逊,倪长海,郭昂清,等.黑龙江中俄界河塌岸地质灾害调查成果报告[R].黑龙江地质调查总院,2013.
- [13]张幸农,蒋传丰,陈长英,等.江河崩岸的影响因素分析[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2009,37(1):36-40.
- [14]Duong T T,Komine K,Do M D,et al.Riverbank stability assessment under flooding conditions in the Red River of Hanoi,Vietnam[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2014,61(3):178-189.
- [15]徐芳,邓金运.河道崩岸影响因子量化分析[J].水运工程,2005(2):54-57.
- [16]白建光,许强.三峡水库塌岸预测的多元回归法[J].内蒙古农业大学学报:自然科学版,2009,30(2):194-198.
- [17]陈书红,武锡荣,程翔.塌岸预测分析与探讨[J].中国水运:下半月,2009,9(1):199-200.
- [18]聂文波,张利洁,费巧振.佐洛塔廖夫法在某码头库岸塌岸预测中的应用[J].土工基础,2009,23(5):47-49.
- [19]刘兴旺,别小平,王家成,等.库岸稳定性分析与塌岸预测[J].黑龙江水专学报,2010,37(3):23-26.
- [20]唐辉明.长江三峡工程水库塌岸与工程治理研究[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(6):648-656.
- [21]王建锋,吴梦喜,李智毅,等.长江三峡工程库区宝塔坪滑坡前缘塌岸预测及防护[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,14(1):1-8.
- [22]舒安平,高静,段国胜,等.基于聚类法的黄河上游沙漠宽谷河段塌岸因子遴选及塌岸程度分级[J].清华大学学报:自然科学版,2014,54(8):1044-1048.
- [23]Amiri-Tokaldany E,Samadi A.Sensitivity analysis of the effective parameters in the river bank stability,2008[C]∥Proc.International Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics River Flow[M].Izmir:Turkey,2008:1297-1304.
- [24]Parker C,Simon A,Thorne C R.The effects of variability in bank material properties on riverbank stability:Goodwin Creek,Mississippi[J].Geomorphology,2008,101(4):533-543.
- [25]邓怀民,郭冬梅,宋俊德.中朝界河(辽宁部分)河岸分区及稳定性评价[J].城市建设理论研究,2013(13):156-159.
- [26]Akgun A,Dag S,Bulut F.Landslide susceptibility mapping for a landslide-prone area(Findikli,NE of Turkey)by likelihoodfrequency ratio and weighted linear combination models[J].Environmental Geology,2008,54(6):1127-1143.
- [27]Lee S.Application of likelihood ratio and logistic regression models to landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS[J].Environmental Management,2004,34(2):223-232.
- [28]Chen W,Li X,Wang Y,et al.Landslide susceptibility mapping using LiDAR and DMC data:A case study in the Three Gorges area,China[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2013,70(2):673-685.
- [29]高山林,朱永春,闫永刚.乌苏里江干流饶河县段塌岸原因及防护措施[J].科技情报开发与经济,2005,15(15):273-274.
- [30]Samadi A,Amiri-Tokaldany E,Darby S E.Identifying the effects of parameter uncertainty on the reliability of riverbank stability modelling[J].Geomorphology,2009,106(3):219-230.
- [31]Hubble T C T,Docker B B,Rutherfurd I D.The role of riparian trees in maintaining riverbank stability:A review of Australian experience and practice[J].Ecological Engineering,2010,36(3):292-304.
- [32]Marco J,Van De Wiel S E D.A new model to analyse the impact of woody riparian vegetation on the geotechnical stability of riverbanks[J].Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,2007,32(14):2185-2198.
- [33]李苗苗.植被覆盖度的遥感估算方法研究[D].北京:中国科学学院,2003.
- [34]李永乐.三门峡水库库岸坍塌成因分析与防治措施研究[J].水土保持学报,2003,17(6):129-132.
- [35]Lee S,Ryu J,Kim I.Landslide susceptibility analysis and its verification using likelihood ratio,logistic regression and artificial neural network models:Case study of Youngin,Korea[J].Landslides,2007,4(4):327-338.
- [36]Kanungo D P,Sarkar S,Sharma S.Combining neural network with fuzzy,certainty factor and likelihood ratio concepts for spatial prediction of landslides[J].Natural Hazards,2011,59(3):1491-1512.
- [37]Robert S.Pindyck Daniel L.Rubinfeld.计量经济模型与经济预测[M].第4版.钱小军,译.北京:机械工业出版社,1999.
- [38]Samsa G P,Matchar D B.Likelihood ratios with confidence:Sample size estimation for diagnostic test studies[J].Journal of Clinical Epidemiology,1991,44(8):763-770.
- [39]李雪平,唐辉明.似然比检验在区域斜坡稳定性敏感因素分析中的应用[J].长江科学院院报,2006,22(5):44-48.