王芳;殷坤龙;桂蕾;陈丽霞;

• 1:中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

以三峡库区万州区为例,选择具有代表性的地质环境指标,分析各指标等级,利用逻辑回归、支持向量机和决策树3种数理统计模型,计算全区滑坡灾害易发性程度,分析3种日降雨工况下滑坡的发生概率,得到各日降雨工况下万州区滑坡灾害危险性分布图。确定了支持向量机模型为万州区滑坡灾害易发性分析的最优模型;万州区滑坡灾害高易发区和高危险区主要表现出沿河道水系呈带状分布、沿高程垂直分布、在城镇区集中分布的特点;特定工况下,万州区滑坡灾害危险性随着日降雨量增大而增大。

关键词(KeyWords)： 滑坡;易发性;危险性;支持向量机;万州区

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金(41601563;41641012)

作者(Author): 王芳;殷坤龙;桂蕾;陈丽霞;

Email:

参考文献(References)：

• [1]殷坤龙,朱良峰.滑坡灾害空间区划及GIS应用研究[J].地学前缘,2001,8(2):279-284.
• [2]王佳佳,殷坤龙,肖莉丽,等.基于GIS和信息量的滑坡灾害易发性评价:以三峡库区万州区为例[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,33(4):797-808.
• [3]Van D,Vanwalleghem T,Poesen J,et al.Prediction of landslide susceptibility using rare events logistic regression:A case-study in the Flemish Ardennes(Belgium)[J].Geomorphology,2006,76(3):392-410.
• [4]Trigila A,Iadanza C,Esposito C,et al.Comparison of logistic regression and random forests techniques for shallow landslide susceptibility assessment in Giampilieri(NE Sicily,Italy)[J].Geomorphology,2015,249:119-136.
• [5]范强,巨能攀,向喜琼,等.证据权法在滑坡易发性分区中的应用:以贵州桐梓河流域为例[J].灾害学,2015(1):124-129.
• [6]Teerarungsigul S,Torizin J,Fuchs M,et al.An integrative approach for regional landslide susceptibility assessment using weight of evidence method:A case study of Yom River Basin,Phrae Province,Northern Thailand[J].Landslides,2016,13(5):1151-1165.
• [7]李亭,田原,邬伦,等.基于随机森林方法的滑坡灾害危险性区划[J].地理与地理信息科学,2014,30(6):25-30.
• [8]姚雄,余坤勇,刘健,等.基于随机森林模型的降水诱发山体滑坡空间预测技术[J].福建农林大学学报:自然科学版,2016,45(2):219-227.
• [9]Gómez H,Kavzoglu T.Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility using artificial neural networks in Jabonosa River Basin,Venezuela[J].Engineering Geology,2005,78(1):11-27.
• [10]Yilmaz I.Landslide susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio,logistic regression,artificial neural networks and their comparison:A case study from Kat landslides(Tokat-Turkey)[J].Computers&Geosciences,2009,35(6):1125-1138.
• [11]牛瑞卿,彭令,叶润青,等.基于粗糙集的支持向量机滑坡易发性评价[J].吉林大学学报:地球科学版,2012,42(2):430-439.
• [12]Kavzoglu T,Sahin E K,Colkesen I.Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis,support vector machines,and logistic regression[J].Landslides,2014,11(3):425-439.
• [13]Yeon Y K,Han J G,Ryu K H.Landslide susceptibility mapping in Injae,Korea,using a decision tree[J].Engineering Geology,2010,116(3):274-283.
• [14]毛伊敏,彭喆,陈志刚,等.基于不确定决策树分类算法在滑坡危险性预测的应用[J].计算机应用研究,2014,31(12):3646-3650.
• [15]Guzzetti F,Malamud B D,Turcotte D L,et al.Power-law correlations of landslide areas in central Italy[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2002,195(3/4):169-183.
• [16]桂蕾.三峡库区万州区滑坡发育规律及风险研究[D].武汉:中国地质大学,2014.
• [17]陈丽霞,殷坤龙,刘长春.降雨重现期及其用于滑坡概率分析的探讨[J].工程地质学报,2012,20(5):745-750.
• [18]苗发盛,吴益平,谢媛华,等.降雨重现期标准化及其在某滑坡稳定性评价中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2016(8):152-156.
• [19]孙金山,陈明,左昌群,等.降雨型浅层滑坡危险性预测模型[J].地质科技情报,2012,31(2):120-124.
• [20]Jia N,Mitani Y,Xie M,et al.Shallow landslide hazard assessment using a three-dimensional deterministic model in a mountainous area[J].Computers&Geotechnics,2012,45(3):1-10.